Y4K? Delivering On The Promise Of UHD...

Following a year in which Ultra High Definition finally got the lift-off it deserves, Chris Pollard discusses the future of 4K and the inevitability of its proliferation.

Ever since the introduction of television, there has always been a drive towards higher quality. It may not always seem like that, and improvements have sometimes been slowed by the bean counters, but, by and large, progress has been in a forward direction.

Industry experts (sic) claim that this trend is driven by the equipment manufacturers wanting to sell more, but they are missing the point. It is human nature to want things better – the 64 plate, the iPhone 6 – and often, though not always accurately, new is taken to mean better. When the 405 line standard was launched in the UK, it was touted as 'high definition'. Present day commentators love to trot this one out, and shake their heads in mock derision, but in fact, this wasn't so far from the truth. Each iteration is an improvement on the previous one, and it fulfils a basic human need.

So it is with 4K. Many of those same industry commentators wail about 4K being an irrelevance, a passing fad, but, once again, they are looking in the wrong direction. 4K is the next step on the evolutionary path, and so long as it is noticeably better than the HD system that preceded it – which it is – then consumers will want it. Put simply, people will buy 4K because it is new, and carries a social cachet, and woe betide any provider who buries their head in the sand and refuses to acknowledge it. 4K is being driven by the viewers, not the broadcasters who, despite complaining about the cost, will have to provide the service or see their market share dwindle.

In the most part, it isn't driven by the display manufacturers, either. This argument is getting very old and tired, and is palpably inaccurate. No, the demand is there because consumers want it, and it then simply becomes a matter of price and availability. Even the 'no content, so no sales' argument is largely specious. It only requires one major to commit to procuring 4K content in large volumes, and the avalanche will start.

A parallel is often drawn between the fast-disappearing 3DTV and 4K, but this is erroneous. 3D was always an evolutionary dead end, largely because its proponents failed to grasp the nature of the domestic viewing environment. 4K, in contrast, is the next logical step in the linear evolution of domestic TV consumption. Many broadcasters were stung by the 3D experience, investing in technology and content which turned out not to be what the viewers wanted. It works fine in the cinema, but not at home. 4K, by comparison, fits neatly into the same environment we have all been enjoying since the days of Lord Reith, and its growth is not simply likely – it is inevitable.

One barrier to domestic adoption up to now has been the price of displays, but with 4K sets from mainstream manufacturers now dipping below the £1,000 threshold, we may have reached the tipping point and there is, for sure, more reduction to come.

Delivery of 4K content has also been a sticking point, but the complementary growth of online bandwidth and improvements in encoding mean that this obstacle is fading. It is certainly likely that the majority of 4K content will be delivered online rather than over the air, but this is a consequence, rather than a driver, of the growth of OTT. 4K will be one of the big winners in the online delivery revolution.

4K is now on display in the shops, and it's impressive. Even upscaled HD looks much better on a 4K set, and the 'proper' 4K looks amazing. It's hard to see how it can fail.

One last word of caution, though. I was chatting to a senior developer with a major Japanese broadcaster at IBC this year, who suggested that 4K is only a stepping stone. His thesis was that 8K is the real target, and, having seen the display in the advanced technology hall at the show, I can see his point. The Japanese will be broadcasting in 8K to coincide with the Rio Olympics, so evolution is marching inexorably on. Darwin would be amused.

The article is also available to read in BFV online.

(IT/JP)